john walley’s blogging on the new zealand economy, manufacturing, productivity, business | john walley blog

Critical - what it says.

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0 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

The TINA’s (there is no alternative) are here again, this time in the guise of the Infometrics. No need to change anything in New Zealand we are doing the very best that can be done. Frankly if what we are doing is the best it is time to throw ourselves on the charity of Australia and plead to become Tasmania Two.

tags: singapore, growth, interest rates, tina, tara

0 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

Well sure enough the winners of high exchange rate high interest rate policies are out on the stump, like this one:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10656962

There is more to fixing the problem than monetary policy - there is but monetary policy needs...

tags: monetary policy, bryan gould, imf, bank of england, productivity

2 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

When we point to the carry trade as a problem we see claims that there is no correlation in this cross rate or that to interest rate spreads. Remember correlation is not causation – the theory goes that exchange rates should be correlated and respond to trade flows but there is bugger all of either in that regard, trade is swamped by speculation. Guess who likes that outcome.

I...

tags: carry trade, exchange rates, interest rate spreads

0 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

New Zealand is highly exposed to both trade and carry trade. Exports at 30 odd percent of GDP and the weight of the carry trade with respect to GDP, even now the wires say we see the NZ$ traded at 43% of GNP on a daily basis (by the way that is the highest in the world).

There is a feeling – again largely in the non-traded economy – that inflation pressures...

tags: federated farmers, macroprudential, carry trade

0 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

This one is worth a read: - "economists' supposedly 'hard headed' thinking has turned out to be profoundly naive".

http://www.johnwalley.co.nz/files/Ernst Fehr How I found what's wrong with economics - opinion - 04 May 2010 - New...

tags: ernst fehr, economic errors, fairness, baised perceptions

0 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

Nice graphic drives home the message on how out of step New Zealand has been on monetary policy and why the ruin has been visited on our tradeable sector. Worth a look.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704448304575195840951492422.html

Sad eh?

tags: global, interest rates

0 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

It took me a while to get round to reading this but it seems that even the White House has now understood that continued atrophy of the industrial sector leads to a number of very undesirable outcome. Sadly the postindustrial fantasy is alive and well in Wellington.

tags: manufacturing, industrial policy, productivity

0 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

The Fed is happy to push a "lower for longer" message - what do they know the RBNZ is missing?

In the meantime we rob our exporters of a margin they badly need.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fdecac56/nz-dollar-climbs-to-highest-in-almost-eight-weeks.html

tags: exchange rates, fed, rbnz

0 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

http://www.mea.org.nz/documents/698-the_road_to_2025.pdf

This one is worth a look, talks about the predictability of the first 2025 Report and the glaring omissions in the issues considered.

tags: productivity, brash, 2025

0 comment(s) Posted in: Critical

Just seen this on Sharechat - we have good quality efficient farmers and they cant make a living - what more proof is needed that our policy framework is bent.

If the efficient operators can't stand in export markets and make enough to keep the wheels on and have a bit left for investment what will our future be?

tags: exchange rates, farming