How is the Reserve Bank going?

No real change from last time and as we have discussed before things on hold for a while yet. I still see late 2018 as first interest rate rise, currency has strengthened and inflation indicators are subdued. That said Canada, UK and USA central banks guidance is giving more emphasis on lifting rates

tags: reserve bank, on the land, currency, macroprudential, debt to income, housing, water

We have seen a lot about “fake” news, “alternative” facts?

• Two main elements – subjective reality v objective reality

What does the idea we are living in a “post” truth world really mean?

• Lose sight of objective facts and the we are in a world of opinion…
• Opinion does not have to be grounded..

tags: fake news, alternative facts, democracy conflict

TPP on life support, or TPP 11 the TPP less the USA. Given Japan who have long protected their agricultural sector and NZ can agree it might have legs:

tags: economics, election, brexit, greece, trump

Fair bit has happened since my last visit, a change of Prime Minister, an election date, and we can look forward to a change in Reserve Bank Governor. A the end of all certainties with the inauguration of Donald Trump, it's a pretty heady mix for us all.

No certainties but a few guesses the we are likely to see a resurgence of bilateral trade agreements rather than more multilateral...

tags: debt, currency, housing, keen, trump, whitehouse

The end of year interview with Rob finished a bit more positive and probably more uncertain than the year opened Brexit, Trump and and the pacific rim with the TPP most places we depend on are a worry.

As mentioned in the interview closer to home are the comments from the RBNZ, here is the November MPS:

tags: rbnz, mps, financial stability, gdt auction

Background for the interview with Rob.

See the interview here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8Ow2lYjsBQ&feature=youtu.be

There is a lot happening in the world, try and keep an open mind, many argue we are at the end of history but there are many things that are not settled and need...

tags: economics, housing, dairy trade, tax havens, political economy

Thirty Years of Manufacturing New Zealand

See presentation here:

https://1drv.ms/p/s!AoCNln6gsG1Tik6N8KqUEWpoy3ft

New Zealand was the first country to embrace inflation targeting, along with a raft of other polices that have come to be known as the broad neoliberal policy approach....

tags: manufacturing, exchange rate, currency, policy, debt, exports, complexity, value

There is an old saying: generals tend to fight the last war; a war they were themselves much exposed to the action forming solid memories of their fights. So it is with politicians and policy makers, confronted by a new world they cling to the learnings and responses of the past, fighting what was once real.

The set piece event that opens each year by the Reserve Bank Governor,...

tags: currency, inflation, growth, turner, gfc, debt, finance, keen, stability

Housing has been a growing issue in many, but not all, economies around the world. In New Zealand, it has been a standout problem that seems to be getting worse, a problem characterised by the Auckland housing market. Housing and land values underpin an issue that directly affects everyone, through higher living costs, driving higher inequality; asset price inflation can be damaging on...

tags: housing, tax, taxation, land, property, ireland, investment, investors, speculation, land tax

Housing has been a hot topic in recent years, as prices in Auckland and Christchurch continue to rise. Housing is an issue that affects everyone, particularly through its effect on the tradable sector and average wages – drawing investment away from productive enterprise and keeping interest rates and consequentially the exchange rate higher than they otherwise would be. Rampant house price...

tags: housing, lvr, loan to value, loan to income, macroprudential, rbnz, central banks, supply, demand