https://t.co/tlXsLXZarK
26/06/2017 9:21 PM
RT @rethinkecon: 'Going Beyond Exchange' from @TheMinskys @HeskevanDoornen https://t.co/GVNeY8gyIQ
23/06/2017 8:53 PM
RT @ChrisGiles_: Hard or soft Brexit? The six scenarios for Britain https://t.co/Fk2hj8muah via @FT
23/06/2017 8:52 PM
This is worth a read: https://t.co/gjARfKQ6JB
20/06/2017 9:58 PM
RT @PositiveMoneyUK: ...and it’s almost impossible to reduce our debts without causing a recession - Welcome to the debt trap! https://t.co…
20/06/2017 9:49 PM
@Parker_Banking The pirates are in the accendency - on the pirate scale there is no difference between Trump and Pu… https://t.co/XbxmE9OJao
17/06/2017 1:11 PM
RT @PositiveMoneyUK: Why are House Prices So High? https://t.co/kYNWqTc6kP
16/06/2017 3:57 PM
@Omearanz Tax incentives point away from productive investments - asset price inflation is not productive of itself… https://t.co/zOCXPEj93U
15/06/2017 5:00 PM
@Parker_Banking People without income and assets cannot be consumers - superfluous to economy - superfluous to soci… https://t.co/EHIOqdcNXH
15/06/2017 12:18 PM
@Parker_Banking Full of rah rah platitudes: happened before no worries.Then machines replaced muscle/debt low, now… https://t.co/SMvdIfmpi1
15/06/2017 12:15 PM
Recent Post Comments
I am sorry but this comment section has been disabled due to spam. My contact details are easy to find, please contact me if you want to comment or discuss anything on this blog.

Print-friendly
14
MAY 10

OCR can wait until September




Can anyone tell me where the inflationary pressure is in our economy?

A few bits in over the last day or two:

Employment still soft and contracting, our survey www.realeconomy.co.nz, core retail spending, bank profits, house sales, food prices all going south, more finance company failures and rental availability going up, real actual manufacturing sales on a par with 2009 (which was a disaster) – people feel better but on what basis?

Is there any real case for a OCR hike in June?  Where is the inflationary pressure or is at matter of pride to have the highest interest rates in the world and our crown is lost to Australia?

People I talk to are feeling better, but employment is still contracting year on year (no tricks with seasonal adjustments) and it is domestic sales holding up volumes and export volume are still down on last year (helps with currency impact I guess) but the strong a dollar on what’s left is negative for sales and margin. The economy is soft and we are hoping for better but better is still somewhere in the future.

Can’t think why the mainstream / bank economists / RBNZ are talking up the OCR or maybe I can….
 


tags: ocr, employment, banks, economists
I am sorry but this comment section has been disabled due to spam. My contact details are easy to find, please contact me if you want to comment or discuss anything on this blog.