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25
MAR 15

Housing – what can we learn from others?


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Housing has been a hot topic in recent years, as prices in Auckland and Christchurch continue to rise. Housing is an issue that affects everyone, particularly through its effect on the tradable sector and average wages – drawing investment away from productive enterprise and keeping interest rates and consequentially the exchange rate higher than they otherwise would be. Rampant house price...


tags: housing, lvr, loan to value, loan to income, macroprudential, rbnz, central banks, supply, demand
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24
MAR 15

Technological disruption and the future of work


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Technological progress leading to mechanical automation has already changed how people work around the world, but advances, particularly in software and computing power are opening up new possibilities of automation and disruption. This change was described recently by Xero Managing Director Chris Ridd, “


tags: exports, manufacturing, innovation, work, employment, automation, competition, education
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19
MAR 15

The best we can be?


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The following is a speech I gave at farewell functions for my stepping down as Chief Executive of the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) at the end of March:

I would like to thank you all for taking the time to be here today.

There is never a good time to leave, my feelings are a mixture of sadness and happiness, and thoughts a mixture of...


tags: nzmea, exports, future, sustainable, debt, productivity, innovation, wealth, r&d, speech, leaders' network
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23
FEB 15

Exporting in 2015


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The attractive parts of being an exporter, such as greater scale and more opportunities, also come with greater exposure to external risks: exchange rate variations, changing demand from economic cycles in destination markets and even tensions in geopolitics all impact any export business. Managing risk becomes a key skill for exporters.

Such fluctuations can go either way;...


tags: exports, manufacturing, currency, exchange rate, survey, rbnz, uncertainty
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19
FEB 15

State of the Nation and Housing


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The political year was back in full swing last week as National and Labour leaders delivered their state of the nation addresses - both different in their content and stated purpose.

Andrew Little’s speech aimed to set the direction of the party going forward, while staying away from policy detail. The focus was on jobs, claiming “the next Labour government will make sure that...


tags: rbnz, housing, andrew little, key, sme, jobs, manufacturing, labour, national
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19
DEC 14

Make policy for real, not ideal, humans


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The following was published in the financial times - to read the full article, click here.

Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made. This famous remark of the German philosopher, Immanuel Kant, is particularly relevant to economists....


tags: bias, confirmation bias, behaviour, daniel kahneman, martin wolf, incentives
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19
DEC 14

The decline of the dollar


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This infographic was originally posted here: www.online-accounting-schools.org/decline-of-the-dollar/


tags: currency, dollar, exchange rate
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5
DEC 14

Currency Viewpoint


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Since 1985 New Zealand has operated with a floating exchange rate, meaning our currency it is traded on the market, responding to changes in economic conditions here and around the world: subject to global events, interest rates, prices and a range of other factors that affect the demand for our currency. It is normal for the exchange rate to be somewhat over or undervalued for periods of...


tags: currency, new zealand dollar, exchange rate, fair value, exports, manufacturing, rbnz, monetary policy
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13
NOV 14

Red ink and corporate welfare go hand in hand - Chalkie


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Grants are a problem: using the tax system is better justified on the capability development spillovers, the fact that it balances what other countries do and the reach goes beyond the favorites and those who can game the system.

The rules applied by the IRD are much less susceptible to the biases that come with grant based handouts.

The following opinion piece by Tim...


tags: chalkie, welfare, corporate welfare, grants, r&d, tax credits, tim hunter
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22
OCT 14

Economic Diversity


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For any economy, diversity in the things you make and who you sell to is important to lower risks and ensure a shock resistant and resilient economy. However New Zealand has generally been going in the opposite direction, relying more on a narrow range of simple products, milk powder, meat and logs, and single large market, China.

In the below graph, you can see that both processed...


tags: diversity, exchange rate, currency, exports, dairy, complexity, manufacturing, trade, china